» 2007 » December

The dollar tumbled across the board during the last week of 2007, and the carry trades were put on the back burner. With trading volumes thinned out the market took the US currency to the only logical direction, down, but currencies gained at different paces. The new year should start with the dollar on the ropes – unless the oil prices head lower unexpectedly. Have a happy and prosperous 2008!

Source : GFT Forex

Forex Market Commentary for December 31 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar took a beating across the board on Friday, as expected, and this weakness should continue on the last day of 2007 as well. Trading should be spotty at best, so trade only if you must.  I wish you the best of luck in 2008!

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied to a two-week high on Friday as well and this strength should continue on Monday as well. However, today’s move should be mild. 
 
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4770. The next level is 1.4800.  Distant resistance follows at 1.4885.
 
Immediate support is now seen at 1.4635.  A break below 1.4570 would suggest a test of 1.4520.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell to a two-week low on Friday. It should now trade sideways at lower levels.
 
Initial support is seen at 111.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10.  . 

Immediate resistance is at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 113.40 and 112.40in place at 113.85.  This is followed by 114.40.  
 
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixes
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar padded Thursday’s gains but the upside is limited.

Initial resistance remains at 2.0020.  Above 2.0055, the next one is at 2.0140.  Distant resistance now follows at 2.0260. 

Immediate support comes at 1.9905.  This is followed by 1.9865. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss sank for the third consecutive day on Friday and this pressure should continue today – but a reduced pace.
 
Immediate support is now seen at 1.1235.  Below 1.1160, support is pegged at 1.1100.

Initial resistance comes at 1.1330.  Above it, resistance comes at 1.1375, 1.1415 and finally 1.1525.
 
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Source : GFT Forex

Forex Market Commentary for December 28, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar remained under pressure and this weakness should persist today as well. 

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied aggressively on Thursday as well and this strength should continue on Friday. 

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4720. Above 1.4750 the next level is 1.4825.  

Immediate support is at 1.4640.  A break below 1.4590 would signal a test of 1.4525. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 

MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed

LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell to a two-week low. It should now consolidate at lower levels.

Initial support now comes from a 50-point pivot at 112.90, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. 

Immediate resistance is in place at 113.85.  This is followed by 114.40. The next level is 115.00.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed

MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish

LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar padded Thursday’s gains but the upside looks limited here.

Initial resistance is now sent at 2.0020.  Above 2.0055, the next one is at 2.0140.  Distant resistance now follows at 2.0260. 

Immediate support now comes at 1.9905.  This is followed by 1.9865. 

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss sank for the third consecutive day early Friday and this pressure should continue today.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.1275.  This is followed by 1.1165. 

Initial resistance comes at 1.1375.  Above 1.1440, resistance comes at 1.1510. 

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed

MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish

LONG-TERM: Bearish

Source : GFT Forex

Forex Market Commentary for December 27, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar sank versus the European currencies on Wednesday, but consolidated quietly against the yen.  Now that  Europe has returned to trade, expect sideways to lower trading for the US currency.  Keep an eye on the US confidence report today and the new homes sales on Friday.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar rallied aggressively on Wednesday and this strength should continue, albeit at a reduce rate. 
 
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4525. Above it the next levels are 1.4585 and 1.4655.  

Immediate support is at 1.4430.  A break below 1.4380 would signal a test of 1.4310. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen traded sideways on Wednesday, as expected. Further choppy trading is likely for several days.
 
Immediate resistance is in place at 114.40. The next level is 115.00.
 
Initial support now comes at 113.60. Strong support follows from a 50-point pivot at 112.90, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar recovered on Wednesday from a four-month low a day earlier.  The downside remains favored in the medium-term and there is a medium-term bearish flag that targets 1.9650, but in the short term it should advance.

Initial resistance is now sent at 1.98650.  The next one is at 1.9960.  Distant resistance now follows at 2.0055. 

Immediate support now comes at 1.9770.  This is followed by 1.9700 and 1.9650. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss felon Wednesday after reaching a near -two-month high a day earlier.  Its medium-term uptrend still looks good but in the short run the pair should decline.
 
Immediate support is now seen at 1.1480.  This is followed by 1.1450. The next level is 1.1390. 

Initial resistance comes at 1.1560.  Above 1.1610, resistance comes at 1.1710 and 1.1750. 
 
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Source : GFT Forex

Forex Market Commentary for December 26, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar was generally unchanged on Tuesday but managed to give back gains versus the pound on Christmas. With Europe still closed today, expect limited trading through Thursday.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar has been flat during the Christmas week. Trading should be quiet.
 
Initial resistance is still seen at 1.4455. Above it the next levels are 1.4490 and 1.4525.  

Immediate support remains at 1.4330.  A break below 1.4290 would suggest a test of 1.4260. Euro/dollar then has good support at 1.4165. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen did nothing after rallying to a 1 ½-month high on Friday. Expect choppy trading today.
 
Immediate resistance is 114.20. The next level is 115.00.
 
Initial support now comes at 113.60. Strong support follows from a 50-point pivot at 112.90, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar recovered from a new four-month low on Thursday.  The downside remains favored in the medium-term and there is a medium-term bearish flag that targets 1.9650.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9700.  This is followed by 1.9680 and 1.9650. 
 
Initial resistance is at 1.9840.  The next one is at 1.9960.  Distant resistance now follows at 2.0055. 

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss consolidated quietly so far this week.  Its uptrend still looks good but a close above the 1.1610 area is needed to signal further strength.
 
Initial resistance remains at 1.1610.  Above it, resistance comes at 1.1710 and 1.1750. 
 
Immediate support is now seen at 1.1530.  This is followed by 1.1480. The next level is 1.1450. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Source : GFT Forex

Forex Market Commentary for December 24, 2007 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar is flat versus the European currencies and the yen on Christmas Eve and struggling higher against the antipodean currencies. Expect only spotty trading through Thursday.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar recovered on Friday after falling to a near two-month low a day earlier. Trading should be quiet.
 
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4455. Above it the next levels are 1.4490 and 1.4525.  

Immediate support is at 1.4330.  A break below 1.4290 would suggest a test of 1.4260. Euro/dollar then has good support at 1.4165. 
 
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen broke out of an inside range on Friday on its way to a 1 ½-month high. Expect choppy trading today.
 
Immediate resistance is 114.20. The next level is 115.00.
 
Initial support now comes at 113.60. Strong support follows from a 50-point pivot at 112.90, which targets 113.40 and 112.40. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar remains under pressure after collapsing to a four-month low on Thursday.  The downside remains favored in the medium-term and there is a medium-term bearish flag that targets 1.9650.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.9760.  This is followed by 1.9680 and 1.9650. 
 
Initial resistance is at 1.9865.  The next one is at 1.9960.  Distant resistance now follows at 2.0055. 

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell from a near two-month high on Friday but then recovered most of its losses.  Its uptrend still looks good but a close above the 1.1610 area is needed to signal further strength.
 
Initial resistance remains at 1.1610.  Above it, resistance comes at 1.1710 and 1.1750. 
 
Immediate support is now seen at 1.1530.  This is followed by 1.1480. The next level is 1.1450. 

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Source : GFT Forex

The dollar followed divergent paths last week, rising against the yen and pound and falling versus the antipodean currencies. This is strange take on carry trades, but that’s only because of the expectations for a rate cut in the UK. Trading should be light during the Christmas week, so trade as little as possible while volume is spotty.

Source : GFT Forex

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Source : EUR CAD