GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 25, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied versus the European currencies on Thursday, but fell against the yen. The oil is recovering, the equity markets are weak and the financial risk in the US is rising. Thus, the dollar has all the chances to sink today. Keep an eye on the US housing and on the durable goods orders data.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell to a new low for the downmove and my model remains short. But it recovered on the close. The medium-term outlook is bullish, and the risk is on the downside.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5740. The next levels are 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860. These are followed by 1.5943. A pivot high remains at 1.6036.
Initial support is at 1.5629. Strong support follows at 1.5585. The next good level is at 1.5550.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen formed a bearish reversal and the downside is favored for Friday.
Below 107.00, support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, and Thursday was a sharp down day! My model remains short. The slide was overdone and the upside is favored.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9895. Above 1.9945, the next level is 1.9990. A pivot high follows 2.0075.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9818. Below this trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss made little progress on Thursday. My model is long, but the risk is on the downside today.
Initial support is seen at 1.0310. Below 1.0275, support now comes at 1.0200. Distant support is pegged at 1.0140.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0405. Above 1.0450, resistance now comes at 1.0475. This is followed by 1.0540.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Friday, July 25th, 2008 at 2:41 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 24, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar should march higher on Thursday, but the upside is getting more limited. It wouldn’t take much to end and reverse as the equity markets remain in disarray. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell further and my model remains short. The medium-term outlook is bullish, but the downside seems favored on the day.
If the initial support at 1.5755 gives way, look for support at 1.5700. Strong support follows at 1.5630. The next good level is at 1.5610.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5760. The next levels are 1.5820, 1.5860 and 1.5943. A pivot high follows at 1.6036.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen should edge higher on Thursday. Again, the short-term outlook is only slightly positive because there is more significant trendline declining since late December.
Resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, so Thursday should be a down day! My model remains short.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9880. The next strong level is 1.9845. Below the trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9965. Above 2.0005, the next level is 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss should struggle higher on Thursday, and my model is long. The risk is on the upside today, but should not be easy.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0355. Above 1.0390, resistance now comes at 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
Initial support is only seen at 1.0245. Below 1.0200, support now comes at 1.0138 and 1.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Up to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Friday, July 25th, 2008 at 2:40 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 23, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar surged on Tuesday in part because Treasury Secretary Paulson paid lip service for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president said interest rates should be raised. Alternating up and down days make it difficult to stay long on a position. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the dollar, but the Fed fear of inflation could translate in a more sustained upmove.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell to a 12-day low this my model went short. The medium-term outlooks are bullish, but with this choppy market, the downside seems favored on the day – it only seems that way because despite the slide on Tuesday, there is strong support at 1.5755.
If the initial support at 1.5755 gives way, look for support at 1.5700. Strong support follows at 1.5660. The next good level is at 1.5610.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5820. The next levels are 1.5860 and 1.5943. A pivot high follows at 1.6036.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed early losses and rose to a near two-week high after breaking the declining trendline. The short-term outlook is only slightly positive because there is more significant trendline declining since late December.
Above this line at 107.57, resistance follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, with Tuesday a big down day, so Wednesday should see at least some recovery! My model went short, but there is strong support nearby.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9880. The next strong level is 1.9845. Below the trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9965. Above 2.0005, the next level is 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed losses and surged on Tuesday, prompting my responsive model to go long. The risk is on the upside today, but should not be easy.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0355. Above 1.0390, resistance now comes at 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
Initial support is only seen at 1.0245. Below 1.0200, support now comes at 1.0138 and 1.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Up to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008 at 3:40 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 23, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar surged on Tuesday in part because Treasury Secretary Paulson paid lip service for the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president said interest rates should be raised. Alternating up and down days make it difficult to stay long on a position. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the dollar, but the Fed fear of inflation could translate in a more sustained upmove.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell to a 12-day low this my model went short. The medium-term outlooks are bullish, but with this choppy market, the downside seems favored on the day – it only seems that way because despite the slide on Tuesday, there is strong support at 1.5755.
If the initial support at 1.5755 gives way, look for support at 1.5700. Strong support follows at 1.5660. The next good level is at 1.5610.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5820. The next levels are 1.5860 and 1.5943. A pivot high follows at 1.6036.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed early losses and rose to a near two-week high after breaking the declining trendline. The short-term outlook is only slightly positive because there is more significant trendline declining since late December.
Above this line at 107.57, resistance follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, with Tuesday a big down day, so Wednesday should see at least some recovery! My model went short, but there is strong support nearby.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9880. The next strong level is 1.9845. Below the trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9965. Above 2.0005, the next level is 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed losses and surged on Tuesday, prompting my responsive model to go long. The risk is on the upside today, but should not be easy.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0355. Above 1.0390, resistance now comes at 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
Initial support is only seen at 1.0245. Below 1.0200, support now comes at 1.0138 and 1.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Up to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 23rd, 2008 at 3:40 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 22 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The oil and gold prices went up and the dollar eventually tumbled on Monday. The medium-term outlook remains negative, but the dollar failed to make an upmove, so the downside is favored.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied broadly but this my model went long. Both the short-term and the medium-term outlooks are bullish.
Immediate resistance is now at 1.5940. The next levels is 1.5970 and a pivot high follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, distant resistance is at 1.6135.
Initial support is at 1.5880. Below 1.5830, support is remains at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed early gains and closed lower after failing to break the declining trendline. The short-term outlook is slightly negative.
Initial support is at 106.25. Below 105.85, support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The trendline is at 107.05. Further resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, so Tuesday should see at least some weakness! But my model remains long and t he medium-term outlook remains positive.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0040. This is followed by 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0000. The next strong level is 1.9935. Below 1.9905, support is seen at 1.9850.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed Friday’s gains but remained in an inside range on Monday and my model went short. The risk is on the downside today.
Initial support remains at 1.0135. Below 1.0095, support is seen at 1.0013 and .9984.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0200. Above 1.0245, resistance now comes at 1.0315. This is followed by 1.0390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008 at 5:08 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 21 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar edged higher on Friday in quiet trading. We need to see if there will be another recovery in the equity indices and a decline in the oil price. The medium-term outlook remains negative, but the dollar should attempt another upmove today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar consolidated on Friday but this my model went short. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish.
Immediate resistance is still at 1.5890. The next levels are 1.5910 and 1.5970. A pivot high now follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, distant resistance is at 1.6135.
Below 1.5830, support is remains at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen struggled higher on Friday, but failed to test the declining trendline. The short-term outlook is cautiously positive.
Immediate resistance is at 107.10 from this line. Further resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. .
Initial support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar is alternating up and down days, so rallied Monday should be an up day! My model remains long. The medium-term outlook remains positive.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0040. This is followed by 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9935. Below 1.9905, support is now seen at 1.9850.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss consolidated in an inside range on Friday. My model went long, and the risk is on the upside today.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0245. Above it, resistance now comes at 1.0315. This is followed by 1.0390.
Initial support remains at 1.0175. This is followed by 1.0135. Below 1.0095, support is now seen at 1.0013 and .9984.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Monday, July 21st, 2008 at 0:36 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 18 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
A further recovery in the equity indices, a declining oil price (now for three days) and a falsely strong US hosing report helped the dollar pad its bounce on Thursday. But the medium-term outlook remains negative, and the dollar may be ending its recovery today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed early losses on Thursday and this my model went long. The short-term outlook is slightly bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5890. The next levels are 1.5910 and 1.5970. A pivot high now follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, distant resistance is at 1.6135.
Below 1.5830, support is remains at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen exploded higher on Thursday, but failed to test the declining trendline and trimmed gains. The short-term outlook is negative.
Below 105.85, support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support follows at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Thursday but remained stuck in an inside range. My model remains long. Cable should first edge lower, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9960. Below 1.9905, support is now seen at 1.9850.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0005. This is followed by 2.0040 and 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied on Thursday, as expected, but gave it all up by the close. My model went long, but the risk is on the downside today.
Initial support remains at 1.0135. Below 1.0095, support is now seen at 1.0013 and .9984.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0245. Above it, resistance now comes at 1.0315. This is followed by 1.0390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Friday, July 18th, 2008 at 6:17 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 17, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Bouncing equity markets, a declining oil price (OK, only for two days) and a decent industrial production report helped the dollar recover on Wednesday. The medium-term outlook remains negative, but expect the dollar to attempt another recovery today. Keep an eye on the US housing data (but can’t expect a good report) and on the Philly Fed.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell on Wednesday and this prompted my model to go short. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish.
Below 1.580, support is still seen at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5860. The next levels are 1.5910 and 1.5970. A pivot high now follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, distant resistance is at 1.6135.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed from a new 1 ½-month low with help from a short-term declining channel line, but the recovery was not strong enough to signal a bullish reversal formation. The pair should attempt to continue its recovery today.
Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Initial support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell on Wednesday but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains long. Cable should first edge lower, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9960. Below 1.9905, support is now seen at 1.9850.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0005. This is followed by 2.0085. A pivot high follows 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss made an incipient bullish reversal on Wednesday. My model remains short, but barely. The pair should test the upside first.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0200. Above 1.0245, resistance now comes at 1.0315. This is followed by 1.0390.
Initial support is at 1.0135. Below 1.0095, support is now seen at 1.0013 and .9984.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 17th, 2008 at 3:08 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 16, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar trimmed losses following a sharp drop in crude oil, but these pullbacks don’t usually hold, so expect some Nigerian rebels or Iranian bellicose statements to boost energy prices soon. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain a major problem, as the financial system is dire straights. Expect the dollar to attempt a recovery today, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish. And if you doubt that, take a look at the US indices. The US economic agenda includes the CPI and industrial production reports.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell from a record high to close flat on Tuesday, but remains above the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.5863, despite the horrible ZEW report. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is slightly bearish, but the medium-term outlook is positive.
Below 1.5860, support is seen at 1.5765. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 1.5970. A new pivot high now follows at 1.6036. Above 1.6055, euro/dollar faces resistance at 1.6135.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank to a 1 ½-month low in aggressive trading, but managed to reduce some of its losses with help from a short-term declining channel line. The pair should attempt to continue its recovery.
Immediate resistance is at 104.95. Strong resistance moved down to 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Initial support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Further proof of inflation vaulted sterling/dollar to a 3 ½-month high on Tuesday and my model remains long. It surrendered some of the gains, so cable should first edge lower.
Immediate support is now seen at 2.0035. The next level is 1.9950. Below 1.9905, support is now seen at 1.9850.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0085. This is followed by 2.0005. The next level is 2.0155. Distant resistance is at 2.0250.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss collapsed to a near three-month low and broke the trendline rising since March 17. My model remains short, but the pair reduced losses and the upside should be probed first. For the medium term, the close below 1.0113 signals a more sustainable decline.
Immediate resistance remains at 1.0135. Above 1.0195, resistance now comes at 1.0245. This is followed by 1.0320.
Initial support is at 1.0070. Below 1.0013, support is now seen at .9984 and .9890.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 at 3:45 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 15, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The market was not all that impressed about the Treasury and Federal Reserve’s plans to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the dollar’s early recovery was either trimmed or reversed. Expect some selling pressure to persist, and keep an eye on the shaky US indices. Also, there is a set of important US data, which includes retails sales and PPI.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month but recovered some of its losses and there is no bearish reversal on the chart. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is now slightly bullish, but his can change in a jiffy if the ZEW report is weak.
Below 1.5860, support remains at 1.5740. The next good level remains at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 1.5970. A pivot high follows at 1.6020. Above 1.6055, euro/dollar faces resistance at 1.6135.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made little progress on the close despite choppy trading on Monday. Expect more of the same today.
Initial support is at 105.90. Strong support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Strong resistance is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
A mammoth UK PPI report, which rose the fastest pace in 22 years, prompted sterling/dollar to reverse early losses and close higher on Monday. My model went long, but cable tested the trendline declining since November, so it should first edge lower.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9905. The next level is 1.9875. Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9963. This is followed by 2.0005. The next level is 2.0085.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
It was quiet in the Middle East and dollar/Swiss closed flat on Monday. My model remains short, but the support from the trendline rising since March 17 held again. Thus, the upside should be probed first. Only a close below 1.0113 would signal a more sustainable decline.
Immediate resistance remains at 1.0215. Above 1.0325, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
Initial support is at 1.0135. Below 1.0113, support is seen at 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 15th, 2008 at 1:47 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 14, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The confluence of geopolitical and systemic risk, and sinking stocks hurt the dollar on Friday. On Sunday, the Treasury and Federal Reserve produced sweeping steps to support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and attempt to avoid a potential meltdown in global financial markets. The Fed said both companies could access its discount window for emergency cash and the Treasury said that it would temporarily increase its line of credit to them, as well as purchase equity in them, if necessary. Expect a choppy recovery of the dollar on Monday, but keep an eye on the shaky S&P 500.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Friday to a 2 ½-month and my model remains long. But on Sunday it turned south, and the short-term outlook is cautiously bearish.
Below 1.5860, support is now at 1.5740. The next good level is at 1.5685. Distant support is 1.5630.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5970. A pivot high follows at 1.6020. Above 1.6055, euro/dollar faces resistance at 1.6135.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made melted early on Friday but then trimmed losses and then edged higher. Expect choppy trading.
Immediate resistance is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance still comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 105.90. Strong support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged on Friday and my model went long. It tested the trendline declining since November, so it should edge lower today.
Immediate support is at 1.9800. Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710. These are followed by 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9560.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9885. This is followed by 1.9917 and 1.9957. The next level is 2.0005.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a one-week low on Friday amid the crisis in Iran. Thus, the bearish reversal formation from Wednesday finally came into play. My model went short, but the support from the trendline rising since March 17 held, so the upside should now be probed. Only a close below 1.0113 would signal a more sustainable decline.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0215. Above 1.0325, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. This is followed by 1.0540.
In initial support is at 1.0135. Below 1.0113, support is seen at 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Monday, July 14th, 2008 at 5:17 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 11, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Thursday, down versus the euro and the commodity currencies, but up against the yen and pound. The US currency should attempt another decline today and the US trade deficit should not be a market mover.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Thursday to a one-week high. My model remains long and I expect a choppy upmove.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5820. Above the pivot high at 1.5908, euro/dollar had distant resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5665. Below 1.5630, support now comes at 1.5575. Distant support follows at 1.5460.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made a half-hearted upmove on Thursday but got stuck in an inside range. Expect further choppy trading today as well, but the upside remains limited.
Initial resistance remains at 107.25. Strong resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply early Thursday but reduced its losses by the close. My model went short, but I expected sideways trading today.
Below 1.9775, support is still seen at 1.9730. Distant support is now seen at 1.9650.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9840. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Despite the brouhaha in Iran, dollar/Swiss closed unchanged on Thursday. Thus, the bearish reversal formation from Wednesday remains incipient. Expect further choppy trading, and my model remains short.
Initial support is still seen at 1.0250. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.
Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Friday, July 11th, 2008 at 4:03 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 10, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar’s attempts to pad its gains were unsuccessful on Wednesday, as Iran’s test of missiles triggered a knee-jerk reaction. The US currency sank broadly and my model went short. Firing nine missiles doesn’t change a thing, but the US equity indices sinking into recession do. Thus, choppy trading should continue in FX.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday, but remained stuck in an inside range. My model is now long, but with the market alternating up and down days, I’m not sure for how long. Expect choppy trading.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5765. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Below 1.5710, support now comes at 1.5675. The next good levels are at 1.5630 and 1.5575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell on Wednesday, but once again didn’t break any new ground. Expect more choppy trading today as well, but the upside seems limited.
Good support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Initial resistance is at 107.25. Strong resistance iis at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply and unexpectedly and obliterated losses made in the previous two days. My model is long, but the upside looks limited.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9865. Above 1.9908, cable now faces distant resistance at 2.0004.
Below 1.9775, support is now seen at 1.9730. Distant support is now seen at 1.9650.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from a nearly two-week high and formed an incipient bearish reversal formation. Expect further choppy trading, but my model is now short.
Initial support is now seen at 1.0250. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.
Above 1.0320, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 10th, 2008 at 5:05 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 9, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar unexpectedly marched higher on Tuesday after the oil prices fell again and the US stock indices managed to advance. There was little impact from news that the index of pending home re-sales fell 4.7 percent in June following an upwardly revised 7.1 percent gain in April. It’s summer time and the market is very unclear – but the dollar should attempt to pad its gains on Wednesday.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell on Tuesday, but was stuck in an inside range. My model remains short, which is good since the pair remains below the former rising trendline. Expect choppy trading.
Below 1.5635, support remains at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is still at 1.5735. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed aggressively on Tuesday, but didn’t break any new ground. Expect more choppy trading today as well.
Good resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 107.20. Strong support follows at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell further on Tuesday, but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains short and the downside bias continues, but choppy trading should continue.
Below 1.9710, support is now seen at 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9540.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.9745. Above 1.9795, cable has resistance is at 1.9865. Distant resistance follows at 1.9908
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied to a 1 ½-week high after forming an outside range on Tuesday. Expect further choppy trading, but my model remains long.
Above 1.0350, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Initial support is now seen at 1.0305. The next level is 1.0215. Distant support is seen at 1.0166.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008 at 23:05 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 8, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar made aggressively reversed early gains on Monday to reflect the plunge of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae on NYSE on concern these two leading mortgage-finance companies may need to raise more capital; Lehman Brothers analysts had said Fannie Mae will add $46 billion of capital and Freddie Mac $29 billion. With the stocks confirming a bear market, the dollar should make another choppy decline – but the accent is on choppy!
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed from a 1 ½-week low and closed higher on Monday, but my model remains short short. The market remains below the former rising trendline and only a close above 1.5735 would now encourage further strength.
Below 1.5674, support remains at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5735. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen slipped from a 1 ½-week high, but expect more choppy trading.
Resistance remains at 107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Further support remains at 105.60 from another 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
A week economic report hurt sterling/dollar on Monday, but the pair still managed to reduce losses. My model remains short and the close below 1.9785 encourage more weakness. But choppy remains the key word for trading FX.
Below 1.9710, support is now seen at 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9540.
00145.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from a 1 ½-week high, but made little progress on Monday, so expect further choppy trading. My model remains long.
Above 1.0325, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Initial support is still in place at 1.0215. Below 1.0166, support is seen at 1.0113, 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 8th, 2008 at 1:46 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 7, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar managed to recover aggressively on Friday and thus to end the week higher, but this only shows the nervousness of the market, as the reasons for strength were simply not there. The ECB met the market expectations and tightened borrowing costs by 25 bps to 4.25 percent, but then President Trichet signaled the ECB wasn’t planning another rate rise, also as expected. Non-farm payrolls fell in June roughly as expected, but the revisions of the previous two months were horrendous. But the market was not about to vault euro/dollar to 1.6000 before the long weekend and the subsequent short covering of the US currency went out of hand. After initial strength, the US dollar should encounter choppy weakness.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month high and closed lower last week, giving up a third of the rally between June 13 and July 3. My model went short. The market is on the verge here, after spearing the rising trendline in the non-market on Friday. Only a close below 1.5650 would encourage further weakness.
Below 1.5650, support is at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5740. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday, but my model remains short. Expect more choppy trading, as this pair is dancing to its own tunes. The level to give you initial direction is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Resistance comes at107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 106.25. Strong support remains at 105.60 from another 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made a bearish reversal, but I wouldn’t get too excited yet, as we need more information. My model went short. Just like the euro/dollar, cable pierced the rising trendline in extra-thin trading on Friday, but only a close below 1.9785 would encourage more sustained weakness.
Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710. Distant support remains at 1.9605.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9885. The next levels are 1.9940 and 2.0005. Above 2.0040, distant resistance comes at 2.0145.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a 2 ½-month low on Friday and closed higher last week. My model went long, but the pair is only half way through the channel declining since May 8. A close above 1.0325, which is the former trendline rising since March 17, would encourage a more sustainable rally.
So, above 1.0325, resistance now comes at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Initial support is at 1.0215. Below 1.0166, support is seen at 1.0113, 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Sunday, July 6th, 2008 at 23:54 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 3, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar suffered mostly against the euro and its convenient sub, the franc, but made little progress versus the yen and pound. Today will be a very difficult day, which would suggest at face value more dollar weakness. But both the 25-bp rate hike by the ECB and a weak non-farm payrolls are priced in, and we are facing a short trading day before the Independence Day holiday. Bon chance!
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar rallied to a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday, ahead of the expected European Central Bank rate hike today. The bias should be on the upside, but the event is already priced in.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5947. Above 1.6020, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.6065.
Initial support is now at 1.5865. The next levels are 1.5835 and 1.5795. Below 1.5740, further support remains at 1.5645.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen cannot sustain losses and cannot sustain gains. It closes marginally lower on Wednesday, and my model remains short. Expect more of the same.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Above 106.45, strong resistance remains at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recouped most of its intraday losses, but didn’t make any progress. My model remains long, but choppy trading should persist.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss closed lower on Wednesday, but didn’t surpass this week’s lows. Again, we need fresh factors before getting out of this sideways market, maybe from the Middle East and maybe from the ECB. The downside should be favored
Immediate support is at 1.0105. Below 1.0075, support is still seen at .9996.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.0185. This is followed by 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 at 2:58 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 2, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it made little progress. Expect further choppy trading today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday, as the market lacks direction. I don’t expect much clarity today either, but with the European Central Bank expected to hike rates on Thursday, the bias should be on the upside.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5760. The next levels are 1.5720 and 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range to close flat on Tuesday as well, but my model remains short. Expect more of the same.
Above 106.45, strong resistance remains at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a 2 1/2-month high on Tuesday, but didn’t make any progress. My model remains long, but choppy trading should persist.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss traded sideways to close unchanged on Tuesday. We need fresh factors before getting out of this rut.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Immediate support is at 1.0155. Below 1.0075, support is still seen at .9996.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 5:20 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 1, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar encountered very choppy trading conditions on Monday, amid last minute position adjustment for the end of the quarter, and managed to reverse early losses. The US currency looks primed for a rally on the first day of the second half of the year. Keep an eye on the US manufacturing ISM report – it may have some short-lived impact.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar made the expected upmove only in early trading and then fell from a three-week low to close down on Monday. It looks like a bearish reversal and more weakness is likely today.
Initial support remains at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5780. This is followed by 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed aggressively from a three-week low to close flat on Monday, but my model remains short. The price action signals a bullish reversal, but Monday’s activity was less than crystal clear, so take the signal with a grain of salt.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell from a two-month high to close lower on Monday. My model remains long, but another attempt on the downside is likely today.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a 2 ½-month low to close higher on Monday. Another recovery attempt is likely on Tuesday.
Initial resistance remains nearby at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Immediate support is at 1.0185. Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 at 4:19 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 30, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
The US currency accelerated its decline versus the majors, particularly against the yen, as some of the carry trade was liquidated. The dollar should remain under pressure today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged further on Friday. The upside is still favored.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank aggressively, closing on Friday below the trendline rising since March 17. My model remains short, which is good, as a double top targeting 105.75 unfolded.
Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a two-month high on Friday. My model remains long, which is good as the pair triggered a double bottom, which targets 2.0375.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, and more weakness may be in store. The close below the trending line rising since March 17 encourages further sales, but only a weekly close below 1.0149 would give me bear comfort.
Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Monday, June 30th, 2008 at 2:01 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 27, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
With the promise of higher rates later this year off the table, one of the few supports for the dollar was brusquely removed and the US currency tumbled against the majors. But the commodity currencies fell on the day as the appetite for risk dissipated. Take some of your cues from the spending/income and the University of Michigan reports, but with oil up and the stock markets down, the dollar should remain under pressure today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged to its highest level since June 9 after closing down only two of the past nine days. The upside is favored, but significant resistance looms at 1.5785.
If 1.5785 gives way, look for a further rally to the initial pivot high at 1.5842. Of course, the big prize remains at 1.6042.
Initial support is at 1.5745. Below 1.5660, EUR/USD has support at 1.5615. Further floors are at 1.5540, 1.5510 and 1.5470.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Long liquidation of yen crosses finally removed USD/JPY from the ubiquitous 107.95 pivot, and the pair collapsed to an over two-week low on Thursday. The selling pressure should persist, but look for support from a rising trendline at 106.50. Key level is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
If this trendline buckles, then look for support at 106.33 and 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105. 00 and 106.00
Resistance is initially seen at 107.00. Above 107.40, key resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to an over 1 ½-month high on Thursday following hawkish comments by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which kept open the possibility that interest rates may rise this year. It recovered about half of the losses registered between March and May, and more strength is liklely.
Initial resistace looms at 1.9908 from a long-term Fibonacci level. Above 1.9965, cable has resistance at 2.0005. Distant resistance looms at 2.0085.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9850. Below 1.9800, there is further support at 1.9760 and 1.9715. Distant support is now seen at 1.9585.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the third consecutive day and Thursday’s slide was aggressive. More weaknkess is in store.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. Below the pivot low at 1.0149, the pair has support at 1.0100. Distant support comes at 1.0017.
Above 1.0250, the dollar has resistance at 1.0295. Further resistance is stacked at 1.0337. Distant resistance looms at 1.0390.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Friday, June 27th, 2008 at 2:26 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Leave a Reply
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 26, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Additional evidence that the US economy is in trouble, this time from the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales, did not affect the dollar. But the FOMC meeting did; the combination of worries about inflation but no rate hike proved to be a hot mix for volatility, which exploded for a few minutes. The dollar spiked wildly both ways, and when the dust settled, the US currency was lower. The selling pressure should continue today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed losses and surged to a 16-day high after the Fed announcement, which was 5 minutes too early and surprised the market even move. My model remains long and the upside is favored.
Strong resistance is at 1.5727. Above 1.5750, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5840 and 1.5865.
Initial support comes at 1.5635. The next levels are seen at 1.5565 and 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels remain at 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen yanked a one-week high on Wednesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading should continue while the yen remains the neutral ingredient of long EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY crosses.
Initial support is still seen at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Above 108.45, further resistance remains pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses in an impressive fashion but basically remained stuck in an inside range. Trading on Thursday has an upside bias.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9770. Above 1.9800, further resistance comes at 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9715. The next level is 1.9650. Below 1.9605, distant support is at 1.9560.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss finally ended its silly pattern of alternating up and down days, as its early gains on Wednesday were reversed dramatically by the Fed announcement. Bearish bias is favored.
Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290. The next level is in the 1.0200 area.
Initial resistance is in place at 1.0385. The next levels are 1.0440 and 1.0490. Above 1.0540, distant resistance is at 1.0622.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
This entry was posted on Thursday, June 26th, 2008 at 2:36 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.