» Pro Commentary Lite … 13th May 2008 … USDCAD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 13th May 2008 … USDCAD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.0059

Resistance:	1.0066	1.0090	1.0117	1.0150
Support:	1.0011	0.9997	0.9966	0.9931

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

While 1.0066-90 caps there is still downside risk else breach extends gains to 1.0143-60

Daily Bullish:	Losses were seen which stalled at 1.0024. I also see support at 1.0011. While there can be any follow-through higher we shall need this 1.0011-24 area remain intact. A subsequent break back above 1.0066 would see 1.0080-90. However, this could cap. Only a direct breach would extend gains through 1.0117 to the 1.0143-60 area at least. Take acre here as this could hold if we are seeing a sideways consolidation. Above sees follow-through to 1.0202 and probably 1.0241-72.
MT Bullish:	13^th May: Price has pulled back lower but hasn’t necessarily broken a bullish structure. However, we’ll need break above 1.0090 and then 1.0160 to maintain direct gains to 1.0241-72 initially.
Daily Bearish:	Losses were seen yesterday and this allows a potential bearish structure to be present. However, we’ll need the 1.0062-90 area to cap. From there a move below 1.0011-24 would imply direct losses below 0.9997 and through to 0.9931 at least. I suspect though that if seen the chances would actually favor a move down to 0.9896 and 0.9338-45.
MT Bearish:	12^th May: This entire choppy sideways pattern hasn’t clarified the direction. However, right now we need a break below 0.9997 to maintain losses for 0.9931 and probably 0.9838-45.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

13^th May

Are we seeing a triangle in Wave (b) or a direct decline in Wave (c)? The 1.0011-24 are must hold while the triangle remains valid. This would imply the next peak at 1.0143-60.

Direct loss in Wave (c) would imply a wave equality target at 0.9931 and a 138.2% projection at 0.9838 which is just below the 76.4% retracement in Wave (ii).

Only an earlier break above 1.0160 would imply direct gains in a Wave iii to the 138.2% projection at 1.0272 and possibly the 176.4% projection at 1.0338.

Ian Copsey