» Pro Commentary Lite … 17th April 2008 … GBPUSD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 17th April 2008 … GBPUSD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            1.9721

Resistance: 1.9735 1.9770 1.9805 1.9824
Support: 1.9678 1.9640 1.9599 1.9550

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: Slightly mixed now – with the previous bearish structure now unrealistic

Daily Bullish: We did see earlier gains as expected but these easily pushed through the 1.9711-46 area and came to a halt at 1.9805. This breaks the larger bearish structure I had been following and leaves the short term a little mixed. There is support between yesterday’s 1.9599 low and 1.9640-48 which I suspect will hold and allow a deeper move higher. A break above 1.9735 and then 1.9770 would trigger gains. There is mild resistance at 1.9824 but there does seem to be an argument to see 1.9893 again.
MT Bullish: Although the large bearish structure is unrealistic now I still see potential to the 1.9335-61 area. Resistance is around 1.9893-00 and above here would allow a deeper pullback to 2.0047 and probably 2.0193. (17th April)
Daily Bearish: The failure to move below 1.9750 does imply an alternative MT wave structure but that could still allow losses to 1.9335-61. However, I doubt these will be direct. I suspect the 1.9599 low should remain intact for now – with 1.9640-48 also supporting. A retest of 1.9893 would appear to provide a potential selling opportunity. Only directly below 1.9599 would imply direct losses through to 1.9520 at least and probably lower.
MT Bearish: It is impossible to retain the bearish structure but I cannot rule out losses back to the 1.9335 low – possibly even lower in a complex correction. 1.9900 should hold for any direct losses.  (17th April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

17th April

The previous more impulsive bearish structure just cannot be sustained with the continued pullbacks and this is suggesting a more complex daily correction. The recovery from 1.9335 to 2.0397 came in 3 waves and this opens up the potential for a more complex structure – most likely a flat or expanded flat. With what appears to be 2 ABC structures lower already it is hard to envisage an expanded flat (unless the next Wave (a) reaches 1.9335 again.) Thus for the moment I feel the 50% retracement in the second Wave (x) at 1.9895 should hold for a move lower and we’ll see how this progresses.

Ian Copsey

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This entry was posted on Thursday, April 17th, 2008 at 7:20 and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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