» Pro Commentary Lite … 17th April 2008 … GBPUSD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 17th April 2008 … GBPUSD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.9721

Resistance:	1.9735	1.9770	1.9805	1.9824
Support:	1.9678	1.9640	1.9599	1.9550

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

Slightly mixed now – with the previous bearish structure now unrealistic

Daily Bullish:	We did see earlier gains as expected but these easily pushed through the 1.9711-46 area and came to a halt at 1.9805. This breaks the larger bearish structure I had been following and leaves the short term a little mixed. There is support between yesterday’s 1.9599 low and 1.9640-48 which I suspect will hold and allow a deeper move higher. A break above 1.9735 and then 1.9770 would trigger gains. There is mild resistance at 1.9824 but there does seem to be an argument to see 1.9893 again.
MT Bullish:	Although the large bearish structure is unrealistic now I still see potential to the 1.9335-61 area. Resistance is around 1.9893-00 and above here would allow a deeper pullback to 2.0047 and probably 2.0193. (17^th April)
Daily Bearish:	The failure to move below 1.9750 does imply an alternative MT wave structure but that could still allow losses to 1.9335-61. However, I doubt these will be direct. I suspect the 1.9599 low should remain intact for now – with 1.9640-48 also supporting. A retest of 1.9893 would appear to provide a potential selling opportunity. Only directly below 1.9599 would imply direct losses through to 1.9520 at least and probably lower.
MT Bearish:	It is impossible to retain the bearish structure but I cannot rule out losses back to the 1.9335 low – possibly even lower in a complex correction. 1.9900 should hold for any direct losses. (17^th April)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

17^th April

The previous more impulsive bearish structure just cannot be sustained with the continued pullbacks and this is suggesting a more complex daily correction. The recovery from 1.9335 to 2.0397 came in 3 waves and this opens up the potential for a more complex structure – most likely a flat or expanded flat. With what appears to be 2 ABC structures lower already it is hard to envisage an expanded flat (unless the next Wave (a) reaches 1.9335 again.) Thus for the moment I feel the 50% retracement in the second Wave (x) at 1.9895 should hold for a move lower and we’ll see how this progresses.

Ian Copsey