» Pro Commentary Lite … 1st May 2008 .. USDCAD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 1st May 2008 .. USDCAD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 Price:                            1.0078

Resistance: 1.0082 1.0119 1.0140 1.0170
Support: 1.0036 1.0020 0.9987 0.9930

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: We should see gains to 1.0060-87 at least

Daily Bullish: Declines reached the 1.0040 support and saw a solid recovery and this tends to suggest the sideways range is more likely again now. Support is at 1.0036 and while this holds I suspect a rally back through yesterday’s 1.0119 high and then onto the 1.0160 price resistance and probably 1.0187. Take care here. There is mild chance of a small overshoot so only above 1.0200 would re-attack the 1.0214 high with follow-through extending gains to the 1.0263-72 area.
MT Bullish: The move higher to 1.0214 doesn’t seem to have helped that much. We need to see this taken out to extend the upside more strongly for 1.0272 and more likely 1.0371-93 and 1.0430. (25th April)
Daily Bearish: Having seen the 1.0040 support remain intact there does seem a greater risk of further 1.0060-1.0187 range trading. Only direct loss of 1.0040 would imply immediate follow-through lower to the 0.9987 low and probably further to 0.9920-42.
MT Bearish: Yesterday’s recovery from 1.0040 will either mean we need to delay of even abandon a bearish stance. Thus only a drop below 1.0040 and 0.9987 will cause additional losses to 0.9850 and 0.9794. (1st May)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

1st May

The 76.4% retracement at 1.0040 was tested yesterday and held. This could still be a Wave ^b within a triangle or it could be a deep retracement within a move higher.

A triangle would imply resistance around the 1.0187 area. Thus a clean break above here would extend gains back above the 1.0214 high and probably back to the 1.0272 area at least and probably 1.0325.

If the triangle persists below 1.0190 then we may have to rethink as eventually it would imply a new ABC structure lower. Thus we need observe key support and resistance.

Ian Copsey

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