» Pro Commentary Lite … 22nd April 2008 … EURJPY

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Pro Commentary Lite … 22nd April 2008 … EURJPY

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            163.83

Resistance: 164.20 164.50 164.84 165.46
Support: 163.53 163.20 162.98 162.31

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: We should see losses but watch two support areas – at 163.53 and 162.98

Daily Bullish: In fact we did see a test closer to the 164.89 target with a peak finally being seen at 164.84. With bearish divergences now developing I feel the upside is now complete. Thus only a break back above 164.50 and 164.96 would see stronger gains through to 165.46 at least and I suspect towards 165.87. Take care here as this could hold.
MT Bullish: It was too early to call a high and it looks as if we should now see gains extend to 164.04 minimum and possibly as high as 164.41-89. However, around this area does seem to provide solid resistance. (17th April)
Daily Bearish: The peak at 164.84 was just 5 points below the ideal target and therefore the downside does seem very vulnerable with bearish divergences seen in hourly, 4-hour and daily charts. Initial losses have several potential targets – the first already seen at 163.53. Below here is support at 163.20 and then 162.98. This area should cause a correction but remain below 164.40-84. Below 162.90 would extend directly lower to 162.31 and possibly the 161.40-60 Fibonacci and pivot support.
MT Bearish: It looks like we’ll have to be a little more patient to get the selling opportunity which I favor in the 164.41-89 area but also watch reaction at 164.04. An earlier break below 159.70 triggers losses directly. (17th April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

17th April

Yesterday’s gains suggest a different larger daily structure and if I have any preference then it is a large triangle structure which sees a 66.7% projection in Wave ^d at 164.04. However we should also note the Wave v projections at 164.41 and 164.89.

Until then there is risk of a pullback to 161.00-10 in a minor Wave iv of Wave c of Wave v.

Watch for bearish divergences to form in the hourly and 4-hour chart which aren’t present at the moment.

21st April

There is a good chance we have seen the high here and thus look for losses.

Ian Copsey

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