» Pro Commentary Lite … 24th April 2008 … USDJPY

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Pro Commentary Lite … 24th April 2008 … USDJPY

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            103.50

Resistance: 103.77 104.20 104.43 104.63
Support: 103.21 103.01 102.66 102.32

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 103.21 supports the next move appears to be towards 104.18-25 and later to 104.63-90

Daily Bullish: The 102.66 low remained intact although I can’t say the recovery has been particularly confident as yet. However, I still feel the bias remains on the upside and will remain so until 103.21 gives way. We should then see a move above yesterday’s high at 103.77 which should stall around 104.18-25. This should provide a pullback but while this remains above 103.45-60 the next move should be back to the 104.63 high and max 104.90 before a further pullback.  
MT Bullish: The bullish stance remains with 106.82 as the eventual target. First move may well get as high as 106.18 but we should still watch the 104.90 are first. I suspect some further consolidation before 106.82. (22nd April)
Daily Bearish: With 102.66 remaining intact the bias does still seem to be on the topside. For this to break down the 103.21 corrective low must give way. If seen this should prompt a deeper correction lower. First support is at 102.32 so watch that but I suspect it could be a bit deeper to 101.77 and max the 101.50 Fibonacci and pivot support. Next support is then at 101.10.
MT Bearish: Friday’s gains appear to confirm the upside and I feel it may well be better to wait for a test to the 106.82 target. Only an earlier break below 102.46 and 101.85-90 signals an earlier and deeper pullback. (21st April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

23rd April

The dip to 102.66 may well have been a slightly overshot Wave iv. If this is the case then we’ll see a move back tot eh 104.63 area initially and eventually the 76.4% projection in Wave v at 105.98 and close to the 261.8% projection in Wave –c- at 106.18.

Any break of 102.66 would suggest 104.63 was a Wave –a- and thus we should observe the Fibo supports at 102.32 (50%), 101.77 (61.8%) and 101.50-55 (66.7%) which is also a pivot area.

24th April

So far so good in looking for Wave v to develop. I see potential to 104.18-25 in minor Wave ii of Wave a and after a pullback in Wave iv look for a retest of the 104.63 high – max 104.90.

Ian Copsey

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