» Pro Commentary Lite … 27th March 2008 … EURUSD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 27th March 2008 … EURUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            1.5791

Resistance: 1.5811 1.5857 1.5877 1.5901
Support: 1.5766 1.5745 1.5724 1.5660

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: The 1.5724 support is important and while this holds a retest of the 1.5901 high is possible

Daily Bullish: The lower weekly target at 1.5339 was achieved and has caused a strong recovery and this still threatens to move closer to the 1.5901 high again. The key support appears to be at 1.5724 (give a little leeway) and while this holds there is still risk of a move back towards the 1.5901 high. At this point this area should cap and allow a pullback and at that point we can see whether we are still seeing a larger correction. Above 1.5901 sees resistance at 1.5961 and 1.6022.
MT Bullish: The recovery from 1.5340 does appear to be positive. What is unclear is whether the final rally is underway or a larger complex correction is developing. Support is at 1.5724 – below extends the correction. (27th March)
Daily Bearish: The lower support at 1.5340 held very well and suggests that we should see a new high but it is not clear whether this will occur directly. For now we should watch support at 1.5745. Any direct clean break would provide renewed losses with the next support at the 1.5660 pivot area. Next support is around 1.5580-00. Any earlier recovery from 1.5745 should see a test of 1.5901 – watch this. Any sign of a peak could generate a move back to 1.5340 eventually.
MT Bearish: The 1.5339 support held perfectly. For the moment the upside still looks dominant. Only below 1.5745 would see a correction back to 1.5580-00 and 1.5462 at least. Only below retests the 1.5340 low. (27th March)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

27th March

The low at 1.5340 is in line with the alternative wave count that would label the 1.5901 as Wave –iii- and thus the 1.5340 low was Wave –iv- or perhaps Wave –a- of a complex correction – maybe a flat of triangle.

Thus the situation is not 100% clear right now and we need to watch the next move. Within the recovery from 1.5340 a more directly bullish stance in Wave –a- of Wave –v- would suggest a retest at 1.5901 before a pullback in Wave –b- ahead of the last rally in Wave –c- of Wave –v-.

Thus watch the 50% retracement in minor Wave iv at 1.5724 – below here would imply a more complex correction – possibly a flat. Only below 1.5340 signals a major peak at 1.5901 having been seen.

Ian Copsey

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