» Pro Commentary Lite … 28th April 2008 … EURUSD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 28th April 2008 … EURUSD

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 

 Price:                            1.5625

Resistance: 1.5666 1.5702 1.5733 1.5786
Support: 1.5583 1.5553 1.5524 1.5505

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: I suspect a pullback higher to the 1.5702-33 area and possibly later to 1.5840-63

Daily Bullish: We didn’t see an earlier pullback on Friday but direct follow-through that stalled 3 points below the next major support at 1.5557. This is providing a pullback and should make its way to the 1.5702-33 resistance area. I suspect the first attempt should hold and cause a pullback lower. Only directly above 1.5733 would extend gains to 1.5786 at least. However, this would imply an eventual test to the 1.5840-63 area but I’m not expecting this to be direct.
MT Bullish: I suspect now that we have seen the final high for the year. There is earlier resistance at 1.5840-63 and also at 1.5875 and 1.5812-25. Only above here would threaten the 1.6018 high again – needs to break. (28th April)
Daily Bearish: A bearish key reversal week seen last week and this does imply eventual follow-through. There a re a few corrective patterns that can develop ahead of extended losses and at this point in time the 1.5497-1.5510 area needs to break cleanly to generate stronger follow-through lower. Support is at 1.5553 and only breach would cause a test of that support area which I see supporting on first test.
MT Bearish: I feel more confident of MT losses but we may require 2-3 days of patience before this develops. I suspect the max upside now is either 1.5840-63 or 1.5812-25. Below 1.5497 sees losses through 1.5340. (28th April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

28th April

The move to 1.5553 came in three waves and the 1.5510 low should remain intact on first test I suspect we have seen an initial low that may well be Wave –i-.

A 61.8%-66.7% retracement in Wave –ii- is around 1.5840-63 but we should also allow for a potential retest of the trend line shown. This is currently around 1.5775 but we should also allow for a 76.4% retracement around 1.5912-25.

In this process we should be aware of the potential corrective patterns in Wave –ii- which may include an expanded flat that tests the 1.5510 area.

Ian Copsey

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