» Pro Commentary Lite … 29th April 2008 … USDCHF

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Pro Commentary Lite … 29th April 2008 … USDCHF

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.0351

Resistance:	1.0380	1.0400	1.0429	1.0465
Support:	1.0325	1.0300	1.0280	1.0250

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

I still have a preference for the correction to reach 1.0213-50 – above 104.29-70 pushes higher

Daily Bullish:	Yesterday was a pretty flat day and as such retains both bullish and bearish interpretations. If we are to see direct gains then we need a break back above 1.0380 and if seen it raises the risk of a retest at 1.0400 and 1.0429. Around here we should still exercise some care. Breach would extend to 1.0460-70 which again should be respected as an area that could cause a pullback. Only breach would maintain the bullish momentum for 1.0544 and 1.0601. (25^th April)
MT Bullish:	The break higher has finally been seen and this broke above the 1.0282 resistance directly and while 1.0190 supports we should continue to see gains to 1.0470 and probably 1.0544 and 1.0601.
Daily Bearish:	The 1.0300-75 area has remained intact and as such the preferred bearish stance remains valid. Indeed, while 1.0380-00 caps this is still the case. However, we shall need price to start pushing lower before too long to retain the downside pressure. Below 1.0325 would assist a retest of the 1.03 low with breach extending losses to 1.0250 at least. From this point take care. There is further support at 1.0213 which should be the maximum we see else stronger losses should extend to 1.0147-66.
MT Bearish:	The upside has resumed and we’ll need to wait for signs of a cap which should come early next week. Even then probably it will be for a correction only. Thus only expect stronger losses below 1.0144. (25^th April)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

28^th April

1.0429 was seen and I suspect this was a small extension within Wave a. Thus a 41.4% retracement lies at 1.0246-50 which I suspect will be the most we see. Also note the 50% pullback at 1.0213.

29^th April

Inconclusive still. However, I feel overall the current wave count that labels the 1.0429 high as Wave a and thus implies a 41.4%-50.0% retracement to 1.0213-50 before Wave c of Wave iii higher can develop.

Any earlier attack above 1.0429 would imply a possible expanded flat which sees a 23.6% expansion at 1.0460 and a 138.2% projection in Wave iii at 1.0470. Thus only above 1.0470 sees further direct gains to the 176.4% Wave iii projection at 1.0601.

Ian Copsey