» Pro Commentary Lite … 30th April 2008 … EURJPY

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Pro Commentary Lite … 30th April 2008 … EURJPY

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

 Price:                            161.95

Resistance: 162.15 162.48 162.80 163.11
Support: 161.61 161.41 161.10 160.80

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 162.48 caps I look for losses to 160.30-40 before a modest recovery

Daily Bullish: Losses seen as expected and while 162.48 caps I envisage more today. Thus only a clean break above 162.48 would provide relief for the 162.76-80 pivot resistance which should also cause a correction. Breach extends gains to 163.11 and possibly 163.48. However, by the time we get up here I feel we should be careful about expecting too much more. Additional resistance is found at 164.04.
MT Bullish: It looks like a peak has been seen and only a break back above 164.96 would imply a move to 165.49-87 but then we need be careful there also. Next resistance is at 166.54-78. (24th April)
Daily Bearish: I am encouraged with yesterday’s losses though these didn’t quite reach as low as I’d hoped but I feel that while the 162.48 area caps there is still downside potential. Back below 161.60 would encourage back to yesterday’s 161.10 low with extension expected to reach the 160.22-40 area where I anticipate a slightly larger correction. Next support is found way down at 159.25.
MT Bearish: It looks more likely that we shall see losses with a break below 162.30-40 triggering stronger follow-through to 161.40, 161.01 and more likely 160.22-40 en route 159.25 at least. (29th April)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

25th April

The decline yesterday moved to the 161.8% projection in minor Wave c to 162.90. This should be counted as Wave i.

We now need to establish the end of Wave ii with 163.80-95 being a key pivot resistance that should hold. In the short term we should be wary of a complex Wave ii in a flat or expanded flat. This latter pattern would imply a move down to the 38.2% expansion at 162.56 and then back to the 163.80-95 area.

Direct loss of 162.56 would imply a 176.4% projection in Wave ii to 160.22 at least.

30th April

I feel that we have seen Wave a of Wave –iii- and thus while 162.48 caps we should see extension to the 160.22-40 area.

Ian Copsey

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