» Pro Commentary Lite … 30th April 2008 … EURJPY

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Pro Commentary Lite … 30th April 2008 … EURJPY

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 161.95

Resistance:	162.15	162.48	162.80	163.11
Support:	161.61	161.41	161.10	160.80

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

While 162.48 caps I look for losses to 160.30-40 before a modest recovery

Daily Bullish:	Losses seen as expected and while 162.48 caps I envisage more today. Thus only a clean break above 162.48 would provide relief for the 162.76-80 pivot resistance which should also cause a correction. Breach extends gains to 163.11 and possibly 163.48. However, by the time we get up here I feel we should be careful about expecting too much more. Additional resistance is found at 164.04.
MT Bullish:	It looks like a peak has been seen and only a break back above 164.96 would imply a move to 165.49-87 but then we need be careful there also. Next resistance is at 166.54-78. (24^th April)
Daily Bearish:	I am encouraged with yesterday’s losses though these didn’t quite reach as low as I’d hoped but I feel that while the 162.48 area caps there is still downside potential. Back below 161.60 would encourage back to yesterday’s 161.10 low with extension expected to reach the 160.22-40 area where I anticipate a slightly larger correction. Next support is found way down at 159.25.
MT Bearish:	It looks more likely that we shall see losses with a break below 162.30-40 triggering stronger follow-through to 161.40, 161.01 and more likely 160.22-40 en route 159.25 at least. (29^th April)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

25^th April

The decline yesterday moved to the 161.8% projection in minor Wave c to 162.90. This should be counted as Wave i.

We now need to establish the end of Wave ii with 163.80-95 being a key pivot resistance that should hold. In the short term we should be wary of a complex Wave ii in a flat or expanded flat. This latter pattern would imply a move down to the 38.2% expansion at 162.56 and then back to the 163.80-95 area.

Direct loss of 162.56 would imply a 176.4% projection in Wave ii to 160.22 at least.

30^th April

I feel that we have seen Wave a of Wave –iii- and thus while 162.48 caps we should see extension to the 160.22-40 area.

Ian Copsey