» Pro Commentary Lite … 3rd March 2008 … EURUSD

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Pro Commentary Lite … 3rd March 2008 … EURUSD

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary

Price: 1.5202

Resistance:	1.5238	1.5268	1.5297	1.5322
Support:	1.5168	1.5142	1.5110	1.5075

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

There is still no clear signal but I feel the risk is lower - only above 1.5238 sees 1.5268-1.5322

Daily Bullish:	Friday saw a mainly sideways trading range although we did see price reach 1.5238. Until there is a break back below 1.5142-68 we should remember the small chance of a recovery back above 1.5238 above which there are two significant resistance points at 1.5268 and stronger at 1.5315-22. I can’t see these being broken at this time.
MT Bullish:	Having made a deeper review of the long term chart I see initial resistance at 1.5210-20 but overall the picture suggests a minimum target at 1.5268 and probably we’ll see 1.5602-60. 1.49-1.50 supports. (28^th February)
Daily Bearish:	A cap seen at 1.5238 on Friday with a bearish divergence – although this is quite weak. However, I still suspect the stronger risk is now lower. Even so, given the strength of the bullish sentiment it will be prudent to take this in steps. To generate another leg lower will require the 1.5228-38 peaks to remain intact followed by a break below 1.5160-70 first followed by 1.5142. Once seen this should cause follow-through to 1.5110. Take care this could cause a pullback. Below 1.5100 extends losses to the 1.5070-80 pivot area.
MT Bearish:	Gains keep coming which means we can raise our reversal point to 1.4872-1.4926. Only below this range would confirm additional losses to 1.4745 which has potential to cause a bounce. Next is 1.4580-00. (3^rd March)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

29^th February

The weekly chart sees a 66.7% Wave –v- projection at 1.5268 and a 76.4% projection at 1.5797. The latter may be too much for the structure since the 1.4437 low.

Yesterday saw a direct move to the 223.6% projection in Wave –iii- at 1.5210-19 and where Wave –c- has projected by 176.4%.

Now there is risk that we’ve seen the peak of Wave –iii- at yesterday’s high but it’s also close to the weekly 1.5268 target. Also the 261.8% projection in Wave –iii- is at 1.5322 so keep this in mind. If seen today it should provoke a larger pullback in Wave –iv-.

If we see a direct pullback in Wave –iv- keep in mind the prior Wave b at 1.5110 with a 38.2%-41.4% pullback at 1.4973-93.

50% is at 1.4921 – I doubt this target.

Ian Copsey