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Pro Commentary Lite

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.5475

Resistance:	1.5485	1.5505	1.5522	1.5569
Support:	1.5435	1.9394	1.5371	1.5333

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

There seems a strong risk of a 1.5430-1.5525 range

Daily Bullish:	Price proved stronger than expected yesterday and this is providing a problem in fitting it into a bearish structure for a marginal new low. However, even in a bullish structure it still seems as if we have some consolidation likely. A move above 1.5485 would allow a move to 1.5519-25. This should cap and allow a drift back lower. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a beak of 1.5525 and if seen would generate gains through to the 1.5569 high and probably to 1.5635-51.
MT Bullish:	16^th May: The longer price fails to move lower the stronger the chance that we have seen an intermediate low. A break of 1.5525 and then 1.5569 would see gains through to 1.5651 – possibly 1.5737 -73.
Daily Bearish:	The downside just isn’t really seeing a peep right now. I am finding it increasingly difficult to fit the current consolidation into a bearish structure. Thus only look for additional losses if we see a break below 1.5394. If this occurs it stands a greater chance of seeing follow-through to 1.5283-03 which should cause a pullback. Below would suggest the 1.5154-86 target is then possible.
MT Bearish:	15^th May: The expectation of a decline to the 1.5140-80 area is being stretched somewhat now. Only loss of 1.5350 would cause a retest of 1.5283 while breach would then resurrect the 1.5154-86 target.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

15^th May

The pullback from 1.5569 has hardly been strong and appears to have developed in two ABC patterns already. The implication is that the decline is corrective only. However we should be ready for a third ABC pattern in a triple three and for this we should note the prior Wave b at 1.5365 and the 76.4% retracement in Wave x at 1.5350. While this holds it should imply time for the next move higher.

Thus only look for the 1.5154-86 target if the 1.5350 support breaks but also take care at the 1.5283 low.

16^th May

While it’s possible the 1.5394 low was a Wave i and 1.5544 was Wave ii there appears a growing risk that we shall be seeing a triple-three recovery in Wave (b).

Ian Copsey

Pro Commentary Lite

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.0532

Resistance:	1.0550	1.0580	1.0606	1.0648
Support:	1.0480	1.0450	1.0426	1.0394

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias:

Some care required but while 1.0550 caps there can still be losses below 1.0426 for 1.0353-73

Daily Bullish:	The rather whippy nature of the decline raises the chance that we are seeing a correction only and that price will force its way above 1.0606. However, only directly above 1.0550 would force that move directly. If seen the 1.0606 area should provide temporary resistance and should then extend higher towards 1.0648 minimum and probably 1.0728 and 1.0763 which should hold.
MT Bullish:	7^th May: The decline has begun to look more corrective and thus we should be aware of the risk of 1.0353-73 supporting and generating a move back above 1.0606 for 1.0763 initially and after a correction even higher.
Daily Bearish:	Losses broke straight below the 1.0440-49 support though stalled at 1.0426. I still feel that there could be one further attempt lower and this will require the 1.0550 area holding any gains this morning. While this does provide a barrier a move back to 1.0426 is possible and after a correction towards the 1.0353-73 area. However, I suspect this will hold any weakness. Therefore additional losses are only possible if the 1.0350 level breaks. If seen this would maintain the downside for 1.0298-31.
MT Bearish:	7^th May: The manner of the decline doesn’t look sustainable at present and may well be contained by the 1.0353-73 support. Thus only look for stronger losses below here when the 1.0125 target will be resurrected.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

7^th May

The manner of the pullback from 1.0606 has begun to look more corrective. This peak was also a 176.4% projection in Wave iii. With Wave ii being deep any Wave iv should be more shallow and therefore take note of the 38.2%-41.4% retracement between 1.0353-73.

This represents the difference between a deeper pullback lower and a Wave iv from where we should see Wave v extend above 1.0606 and to the 1.0763-75 at least where Wave –c- will have extended by 138.2%.

Any earlier break below 1.0350 would extend the losses in the correction of the rally from 0.9644 to 1.0606 which has a 50% retracement at 1.0125.

Ian Copsey