GFT Daily Market Commentary - Forex Forum

Forex Market Commentary for September 17, 2008 by Cornelius Luca GFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar edged up on Tuesday on consolidation, as expected, as all eyes were on AIG first and Wa Mu second. The AIG was saved by the government late in the day, and this excellent news for this superb vital insurance company – and for many other financial institutions and individuals. Moreover, the stocks recovered on solid earnings from Morgan Stanley. The US CPI started to slip – this is only the beginning, as oil prices have been falling since then and have more room to go. The US economic reports to focus on today are the current account balance for the second quarter and the housing starts and building permits for August. More dollar consolidation is likely today, but dollar/yen has a bid tone, while the European currencies should attempt to strengthen against the dollar.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar closed lower on Tuesday, but my model remains long. It should now attempt to recover those losses.

Initial resistance is at 1.4270. This is followed by 1.4330. Above 1.4482, the high on Monday, resistance is still seen at 1.4545. Above 1.4625, resistance is at 1.4810.

Immediate support remains at 1.4145. Below 1.4088, the low on Monday, support is now seen at 1.4004. A pivot low is at 1.3883.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen encountered the expected decline only in early trading on Tuesday and hit a near-four month low before reversing aggressively. My model remains short. The upside is now favored.

Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Below the 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00, there is a pivot low at 103.56.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar fell on Tuesday, as expected, but my model remains long. The short term is mixed to slightly bullish.

Immediate resistance is at 1.7960. Good resistance follows at 1.8035. The next level to keep in mind is 1.8120. Above the strong level at 1.8190, further resistance remains at 1.8280.

Below the strong level at 1.7780, support remains at 1.7708. This is followed by 1.7672. Below 1.7595, distant support is at 1.7450.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss franc reversed early losses to close higher on Tuesday, as expected, but my model remains short. The initial bias is mixed to slightly lower.

Immediate support is still seen at 1.1130. The next level is 1.1050. Below 1.1010, support is pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844.

Initial resistance remains at 1.1270. This is followed by 1.1360.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish




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