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Forex Market Commentary for September 19 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary


The rumor that the Fed will move to shore up the entire bad mortgage positions of the banks did miracles for the stock market and dollar/yen rallied. The European currencies should weaken as well. But FX should stay in the shadow of bigger asset classes and the market should not be too liquid. Be super-careful here!


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar ended well off its lows on Thursday as expected, and my model remains barley long. It should attempt to add to its late gains today.

Initial resistance is at 1.4290. The next level to watch is 1.4400. Above 1.4482, resistance is still seen at 1.4545.

Immediate support comes at 1.4200. The next strong level remains at 1.4145. Below 1.4088, the low on Monday, support is still seen at 1.4004. A pivot low is at 1.3883.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday, but my model remains short. The market will change at the drop of the hat, so what goes up today may reverse tomorrow - or in the next 10 minutes.

Initial support is now 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Below the 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00, there is a pivot low at 103.56. Distant support is at 102.40.

Immediate resistance is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed



Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar managed to recover most of its unexpected losses on Thursday. The short term is at only slightly bullish.

Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8100. The next level remains 1.8190. Above the strong level at 1.8280, distant resistance is still seen at 1.8470 and 1.8505.

Initial support is at 1.7960. Below the strong level at 1.7780, support remains at 1.7708.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss franc closed up on Thursday, but off its intraday highs. Some pressure is likely here.

Immediate support is at 1.1100. Below 1.0950, support remains pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844. Distant support is at 1.0715.

Initial resistance still comes at 1.1200. This is followed by 1.1270 and 1.1360.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish






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