GFT Daily Market Commentary - Forex Forum

Forex Market Commentary for September 22, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar rallied aggressively versus the yen and reversed gains against the European currencies on a sudden increase in the appetite for risk after Treasury Secretary Paulson urged the government to extract the toxic mortgage assets from the financial system and the Federal Reserve pledged to provide loans for purchases of high-quality asset-backed commercial paper from money market funds. Commodities surged again. There are incipient, but crucial, steps in returning to normal trading conditions in FX. On Monday, the dollar fell across the board and should now consolidate. The market remains illiquid though and fortunes will continue to change very quickly.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar reversed sharp early losses to close higher on Friday. My model is long and more strength is likely.

Above 1.4625, resistance is still seen at 1.4810.

Immediate support is at 1.4540. This is followed by 1.4375. The next level is 1.4290.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen rallied further on Friday and fell early Monday, as the yen remains an ingredient for crosses. My model went long. The medium-term outlook is mixed.

Initial support is at 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed



Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar recovered sharp losses to close higher on Friday. My model remains long and the upside is again favored in the short term.

Above the strong level at 1.8470, distant resistance is at 1.8505.

Immediate support is at 1.835. Below 1.8235, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Friday and again early Monday. The initial bias is bearish.

Below 1.0885, support is still pegged at 1.0844. This is followed by 1.0715.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.1040. The next levels are 1.1100 and 1.1200. These are followed by 1.1360.

Oscillators are bearish.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish






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