Forex Market Commentary for October 11, 2008 by Cornelius Luca - Forex Forum

GFT Daily Market Commentary


The US stock markets are in a free fall, the commodities are crushing and the adversity to risk are taking the carry trades lower. Amid this unprecedented crisis, the major currencies continue to have a divergent behavior. The dollar should decline against the yen and advance versus the European currencies. The US trade should not matter and all eyes will be on the G7 meeting at the weekend.


Euro/dollar


The euro/dollar struggled higher on Thursday, as expected, but the upside is limited. In the medium term, the pair remains in a declining channel support.

Immediate support is at 1.3500. The next level is 1.3443. Distant support looms at 1.3350.

Resistance comes at 1.3620. The next level is 1.3750. Above 1.3775, the euro/dollar retains resistance at 1.3857. Distant resistance follows at 1.3980.

Oscillators are mixed.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen collapsed to below to a new low for the downtrend and remains below the neckline of an irregular head-and-shoulders pattern. The downside is favored today.

Initial support comes at 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75. Distant support follows at 97.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 96.80 and 97.80.

Immediate resistance is at 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. Distant resistance is at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75.

Oscillators are bearish.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed



Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar fell to a new low for the downtrend. The outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is seen at 1.6910. The next support follows at 1.6705.

Initial resistance looms at 1.7070. The next level is 1.7270. Above 1.7395, distant resistance is at 1.7455.

Oscillators are bearish.


NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish



Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss franc consolidated into early Friday. Mixed trading is favored in the short term.

Immediate support remains at 1.1210. Below 1.1140, support is seen at 1.1085. Good support follows at 1.097.

Initial resistance is still seen at 1.1325. Above 1.1390, distant resistance comes at 1.1490

Oscillators are declining.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish





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