GFT Daily Market Commentary - Forex Forum

Forex Market Commentary for July 25, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary


The dollar rallied versus the European currencies on Thursday, but fell against the yen. The oil is recovering, the equity markets are weak and the financial risk in the US is rising. Thus, the dollar has all the chances to sink today. Keep an eye on the US housing and on the durable goods orders data.


Euro/dollar


Euro/dollar fell to a new low for the downmove and my model remains short. But it recovered on the close. The medium-term outlook is bullish, and the risk is on the downside.

Immediate resistance is seen at 1.5740. The next levels are 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860. These are followed by 1.5943. A pivot high remains at 1.6036.

Initial support is at 1.5629. Strong support follows at 1.5585. The next good level is at 1.5550.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish



Dollar/yen


Dollar/yen formed a bearish reversal and the downside is favored for Friday.

Below 107.00, support is again at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Below 105.85, distant support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.

Resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed



Sterling/dollar


Sterling/dollar is still alternating up and down days, and Thursday was a sharp down day! My model remains short. The slide was overdone and the upside is favored.

Initial resistance now comes at 1.9895. Above 1.9945, the next level is 1.9990. A pivot high follows 2.0075.

Immediate support is now seen at 1.9818. Below this trendline at 1.9815, support is seen at 1.9760.

Oscillators are falling.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed



Dollar/Swiss franc


Dollar/Swiss made little progress on Thursday. My model is long, but the risk is on the downside today.

Initial support is seen at 1.0310. Below 1.0275, support now comes at 1.0200. Distant support is pegged at 1.0140.

Immediate resistance is at 1.0405. Above 1.0450, resistance now comes at 1.0475. This is followed by 1.0540.

Oscillators are rising.


NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed







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