Kolganov Forecasts By Eurusd, Gbpusd, Usdchf And Gold - Forex Forum

EURUSD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.3438, resistance 1.4045 and 1.4192.



GBPUSD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 1.4680, resistance 1.5207.



USDCHF
H4 forecast
Ascending trend, target of movement 1.1536, support 1.1000 and 1.0838.



GOLD
H4 forecast
Descending trend, target of movement 771.09, resistance 854.00

EUR/USD
Side trend.
Variants of events' development that take effect if:
1. if the pair will go down lower than trend line "X", the pair will go down lower than level 1.3800, then the levels 1.3838 and 1.2950 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing level 1.3800, the pair will go up to level 1.3900.
2 -/-
3. if trend line "Y" will be passing up, the level 1.4935 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing trend line "Y" the pair will go down then trend line "Y".





USD/CHF forecast
Ascenfing trend.
Variants of events' development that take effect if:
1. if the pair will go higer than trend line "B+", then trend line "E+" will become its target. If trend line "E+" will be broken through upwards, then level 1.1720 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing upwards of trend line "E+", the pair will go downward then trend line "E+".
2. -/-





GOLD forecast
Side trend, there are some signs of down trend.
If trend line "C+" will be broken through downward, then trend line "E" will be achieved, level ~830.00. If trend line "E" wil be broken through downward also, then trend line "B" will become its target, level 807.00. And if trend line "B" also will be broken through downwards, then level 750.94 will become its target.
- cancellation of the scenario if after passing trend line "E" downward, the pair will be broken through her upwards.

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph




GBP/USD forecast

H4 graph




USD/CHF forecast

H4 graph




GOLD forecast

H4 graph

EURUSD

H4 graph




GBPUSD

H4 graph




USDCHF

H4 graph




GOLD

H4 graph

short eur/usd.
t/p 1.3240

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair has reached the target level and a very strong support (1.2830) on the daily graph. For this reason I expect changing in
trends "а-а+" and "В-В+". In the case of breaking the "double bottom" figure (e-e+), the path will be clear for breaking "a-a+" descending
trend, breaking of which in its turn will clear the path for breaking "B-B+" trend and reaching the target of 1.3485.
Current support is 1.2910.





GBP/USD

H4 graph
I expect turning of the trend. In the case of trend "e-e+" breaking, level 1.4220 is to be reached.





USD/CHF

H4 graph
There are signs of the trend's change. Now I'm expecting a contact with "а-а+" trend's lower bound, and reaching 1.1115 level upon its breaking.





GOLD

H4 graph
The target is $912.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" channel has granted a possibility of breaking "B-B+" trend and the growth to target levels 1.3485 - 1.3645. After "G" trend (1.3300 level) had been reached, the pair bounced off and began the correction. At this moment there are two variants of events to develop:
1. The pair will continue to grow with a target of 1.3485 from current levels, or;
2. The pair will go down to a gathering of supports 1.3015 - 1.3087 and will continue to grow with a target of 1.3485 from there, repeatedly breaking "B-B+" trend and trend line "G" bottom-up.




GBP/USD

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" trend has cleared the way for testing "C" trend line (1.4220), then a bounce off it together with a minor correction occurred. While the pair remains above "a-a+" trend I'm expecting a repeated testing of "C" trend line with subsequent breaking of it and reaching the target of 1.4692. In the case of correction's extension the pair may go down to 1.3858 level and continue to grow from there with targets stated above. 1.4050 level is also a heavy support, so if the ascending impulse will be strong enough, this support is entirely sufficient for maintaining the pair's growth.




USD/CHF

H4 graph
Breaking of "a-a+" trend has cleared the way for dropping to target level of 1.1115. Two levels of resistance have been formed: 1.1410 and 1.1500. In the case of correction's extension I expect a bounce off one of these levels and a continuation of the descending trend with a target of 1.1115.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
Breaking through "а-а+" trend grants a possibility of testing the higher bound of "В-В+" trend, level 1.3270.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair goes below level l.2790.





GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair has reached the higher bound of "В-В+" trend, and in case of its breaking "С+" trend line (level 1.4785) will be reached next. There is some resistance at 1.4675 which is capable of holding up an ascending impulse.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair will manage to drop below level 1.4370 after breaking "В+" trend line.





USD/CHF

H4 graph
Breaking of "а-а+" trend has cleared the way for reaching the lower bound of "В-В+" trend and breaking through it afterwards. Now the pair has a reaching target of level 1.1235 or even 1.0855 (this will be discussed a little later). "Х" trend line has an opportunity to provide a short-term support for the pair.
This scenario is cancelled if the pair manages to rise above level 1.1525.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
Until ECB rates will be published tomorrow, the market is still staying in a side trend and has formed a "triangle" figure. Although I have a lot of strong resistances (1.2830, 1.2790) below and the picture on the daily graph is being built upwards, due to the fact that a "triangle" is formed I should also consider a possibility of developing the picture downwards, because the market's tone will define the side of the figure to which it will be broken.
That’s why there are two variants of events development for tomorrow (if the figure will have been broken after ECB rates publication) and for Friday (if the figure will have been broken after USA TICS rates publication - employment outside the agriculture):
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, the pair will reach "B+" trend line (1.3250), and upon its breaking the pair will aim at the target level 1.3820.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, the pair will reach the target of 1.2260 and probably go lower.






GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair has broken an important descending trend "B-B+", telling about the market’s intention to go up. Meanwhile a "diamond" figure has been formed, which is holding the pair within. Again, the market needs publication of the news to gain an incentive to move. In presence of this figure just like in eur/usd we should consider market’s movement both upwards and downwards, so:
1. If the figure will be broken upwards, "C+" trend line (1.4760) will be the target, then 1.5000 and higher upon its breaking.
2. If the figure will be broken downwards, 1.3780 will be the target.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
A "triangle" figure has been formed just like in eur/usd. I have a lot of resistances above, and the daily graph is telling about heading down tendency, but we need look at which side the figure will be broken through.
1. In the case of breaking the figure downwards, the pair goes to 1.1034 level.
2. On breaking upwards, the pair goes to 1.2065 level.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair has broken the "diamond" figure ("triangle" figure of the previous forecast - "E-E+" and now it's aimed at "В+" trend line, 1.3220 level, which is the target of the pair. Next, the pair will reach the target of 1.2760 - 1.3800 in the case of "B+" trend line breaking, but first it will need to overcome the resistance at 1.3300. The target of the "diamond" figure lies above 1.3300 level, thus the pair will get over it. The support is currently at 1.2950. Important news - Bernanke's speech is to be released on Tuesday and USA trading balance is to be released on Wednesday. If the market turns inert before those news are published, then there will be a reviving along with extension of the descending trend in USD.






GBP/USD

H4 graph
As supposed, the pair had broken the "diamond" figure upwards, it approached "C+" trend line (marked blue in the previous forecast, now it's marked red), 1.4760 level, which eventually has been broken by the pair afterwards. The resistance at the moment is "D+" trend line – the higher bound of the side trend from the daily graph. Returning to the support at 1.4760 is possible now, but after that I'm expecting extension of the ascending trend. Upon "D+" trend line breaking and passing 1.5000 level, the pair will move towards 1.5450, it's a good chance to happen tomorrow.






USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair is in "E-E+" side trend, upon breaking of which ("E+" trend line), it will move towards "K" trend line, 1.3000 level, and possibly towards 1.2000. Resistance is at 1.1655, but there is a chance that the pair's correction will occur a little higher. The ascending correction was provoked by "R" trend line. I'm expecting "E" trend line's breaking and reaching the target of 1.3000 - 1.2000.
Breaking of "triangle" figure was supposed to go downwards as well as upwards in the previous forecast. Eventually the figure had been broken upwards, but that was a false breaking, due to the fact that it was not supported either by eur/usd, or by gbp/usd - the pairs against which the dollar was dropping, not rising. Besides, franc had broken the figure before all important news was released.

H4 graph
The pair didn’t manage to get over "D+" trend line and bounced off it. After that "а-а+" trend was broken, clearing the way for dropping below "С+" trend line. The pair has finished its ascending motion with the breaking of "К-К+" trend. Now the target of dropping is the level of 1.4050, while resistances are at 1.4510 and 1.4630.




Daily graph
"D+" trend line suppressed the ascending motion. That event was followed by repeated top-down breaking of "С+" trend line. Proceeding from 4-hours graph, the pair is now having the target of lowering at 1.4050. Taking into account that the pair is located above "В-В+" trend, the target level 1.5300 remains actual. Lowering to 1.4050 should be considered correctional; we should expect continuation of the ascending trend from that level with the target at 1.5300.

How to use forecasts based on the "Strategist" trading system

Content:
1. Forecasts update frequency
2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
4. Opening positions
5. Variants of events to develop
6. Designation of trend lines



1. Forecasts update frequency
Forecasts are updated regularly on the basis of relevancy. Forecasts won’t be updated (current forecast remains valid) until the pair will reach targets given in the forecast, or the technical picture will change dramatically.


2. Forecasting time frames / term of the forecast
Forecasts are given over two time frames: H4 and Daily (forecasts over time frames lower than H4 are not given). Forecast relevancy (reaching the target of the pair) over H4 time frame lasts for a period of three to seven days. For Daily time frame this period varies from two weeks to a month (sometimes more).
A strategic target of the pair is given over Daily time frame, and a local target is given over H4 (relative to Daily; H4 time frame represents internal waves of the trend from Daily time frame). Therefore, there are two presentations: a strategic (long-term) and a local one (short-term).


3. What the system is using (basis of the trading system)
The "Strategist" trading system uses classic trends and figures of technical analysis.
Examples of trends:

Trends are being built basing on trend lines.

Examples of figures:

Figures are being built basing on trend lines, just like trends are.


4. Opening positions
A position is opened when a trend line gets broken (when the pair breaks a trend line and then goes for 30 pips in the same direction). A stop loss is set behind a trend line. Upon breaking of every trend line or trend, a new target is formed, and the market has to reach it.


An example of trend breaking:


The breaking of a trend line/trend/figure can be a false one when, after the breaking, the pair repeatedly breaks the same trend line without reaching the pair’s target. In case of the false breaking the forecast becomes irrelevant.

Breaking of trend lines at daily time frames is connected with releases of important news. Sometimes a trend line can be broken before news is released but, as a rule, such breaking proves to be a false one and the true breaking happens after news release.


5. Variants of events to develop
In forecasts multiple variants of events to develop are suggested at once. Variants come true in case of breaking either one or another trend line. Each variant takes place under a specific condition (causal connection), which should be satisfied in order to realize the variant.

An example of forecasting:
GBP/USD pair is in “a-a+” ascending trend and is constrained within the range (1.4700 – 1.4940) between two trend lines: “C+” and “D+”. There are 3 variants of events to develop:
1. Variant: the pair breaks “D+” trend line and heads to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair manages to drop below “D+” trend line after breaking it (indicates a false breaking).
2. Variant: the pair stays in range 1.4700 – 1.4940 between “C+” and “D+” trend lines. Upon bounce off “C+” trend line the pair will head to “D+”, break it and make its way to the target level 1.5800.
This forecast is cancelled in case: see Variant 1.
3. Variant: the pair will not manage to break “D+” trend line. After breaking “C+” trend line and then also “a-a+” trend, the pair will head to the target level 1.4050.
This forecast is cancelled in case the pair won’t be able to develop a descending motion after breaking “a-a+” trend and it will go up above “a” and “C+” trend lines (higher than level 1.4700).
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732378_5-1.gif - img

Forecast result:
http://forexmillion.com/uploads/posts/1234732330_5-2.gif - img



6. Designation of trend lines
Trend lines are designated by letters with only purpose to make it clear for the reader of a forecast which line exactly is described. As a rule, trends at H4 graphs are designated as “a-a+”, at daily graphs as “B-B+”, and at weekly graphs as “C-C+”. The rest of trend lines designations are made arbitrarily.


Trading signals
Trading signals for given forecasts will possibly appear at the site for free access after some time.


RISKS WARNING
Forecasts are not the trading signals! They help to reveal the direction of the market’s motion as well as the market’s future intentions to move along one or another side upon satisfying one or another specific condition. When you trade, rely solely on signals of your trading system; use forecasts only for seeing the market’s prospect and the targets of the market’s motion. The trading radically differs from the forecasting. In the situation when an analyst sees a straightforward motion of the market, a trader can close a number of deals, most of which will probably be unprofitable if a trader will not observe the rules of his or her trading system.
The author of the forecasts is not liable for the results of trading that is guided by offered forecasts.

EUR/USD forecast

H4 graph
The pair is being traded in the "a-a+" half-side half-ascending trend. A trading range 1.2604 - 1.2755 has been formed by numerous resistances from above

and supports from below. I can't say that the pair has an ascending intention right now, because the higher bound of the side daily trend - "B+" trend line -

is crossing the level 1.2770. This trend line will hold up all ascending attempts until it gets broken.
Analyzing the present picture, three variants of events to develop are seen:
1. continuation of trading in the side trend, in 1.2604 - 1.2755.
2. by breaking the lower bound of "a-a+" trend ("a" trend line) the pair heads to the "Z" trend line - level 1.2430 (if the pair drops below 1.2600).
3. by breaking "B+" trend line the pair heads to the level 1.3110 (if the pair rises above 1.2820).




Daily graph
The pair is being traded down the "B-B+" side descending trend, which has a potential to carry the market up to the level 1.2320. I can't tell about a clear

development of any picture unless the pair exits from this trend by breaking its higher bound "B+". If "B+" will get broken and the pair goes above level

1.2840, then reaching of the support at 1.3300 is guaranteed.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is confidently moving along the ascending trend. Trend’s target is at levels between two resistances: 1.3820 and 1.4000, where "Y" trend line passes. I expect a potential turn from those levels. There are no signs of trend’s turn yet, that’s why ascending motion is confident for now.




Daily graph
If signs of trend’s turn appear, the pair will perform a correction to 1.3300, followed by resuming of the ascending trend targeted at testing the "Y" trend line. In case "Y" trend line will get broken, the figure #44 will be the pair’s next target.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had passed the "R" resistance trend line (level 1.3480) and now it's being traded along an ascending trend with the target of growth to level 1.3750. The support is found at level 1.3455; intermediate resistance is at 1.3570. If the pair goes below level 1.3350, an ascending trend is supposed to be replaced by a descending one
Looks trading signals




Daily graph
An ascending trend having the target of growth to the resistance level 1.3750 had been developed at H4 graph. Upon reaching the stated level, there are 3 scenarios of events to follow:

1. If the pair rises above level 1.3800 (breaks the "Y" trend line), then target 1.4360 will be reached.

2. If the pair bounces off level 1.3750 ("Y" trend line), a "double top" turning figure will be formed having its basis at level 1.3112. Upon the bounce off 1.3750 the following is supposed to happen: "M" trend will get broken, figure's basis level and then the support at 1.3112 will be reached, after that the pair will bounce again and grow to level ~1.3650, then break the "Y" trend line and reach level 1.4360.

3. If after the bounce off 1.3750 and reaching the figure's basis at level 1.3112 the pair goes under this level, it will reach an intermediate support and then the main support at 1.2500 ("U" trend line) - the lower bound of the "triangle" figure from weekly graph




Weekly graph

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along a downtrend. It has just exited from the “triangle” figure through its lower bound. Taking to account such a picture, we have 2 variants of events to develop:

1. The pair doesn’t manage to rise above resistance 1.3080; that gives an opportunity of lowering to accumulation of supports around 1.2840–1.2745, and in case the pair drops below the level of support 1.2745, it will reach level 1.2525.

2. Downtrend fades gradually, and the signs of turn show themselves. In such case we should consider switching from downtrend to uptrend only if the pair rises above level 1.3310; if that happens, the pair will reach resistance 1.3370. If the pair passes this resistance and goes up further, it will reach level of the next resistance – 1.3670.





Daily graph
There is a “triangle” figure. Breaking of this figure gives an opportunity to grow, as well as to drop. At the moment euro/dollar is striving to get under the figure’s lower bound, and if the pair doesn’t manage to rise above resistance 1.3080, it will get to support 1.2745. If after that the pair will drop below this support, it will reach level 1.2525.

Another variant takes place if the pair rises above the “triangle” figure’s higher bound – level 1.3370. In this case the pair will reach resistance 1.3690, and if it gets over it, then reaching of levels 1.4100 and 1.4400 is supposed.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is consolidating under the “triangle” figure’s lower bound, being held up by resistance level 1.3080. After “triangle” got broken the market was supposed to rapidly make a leap down, but that didn’t happen – downtrend impulse faded owing to support 1.2898 (the maximum on 02/25/09). Taking this picture to account there are 2 variants of events to develop:

1. The pair rises above resistance 1.3080, which speaks in favor of finishing of the “triangle” model and of the downtrend. Next, upon breaking above level 1.3155 an uptrend will take effect, having the target at resistance level 1.3320 (the higher bound of the “triangle”). A correction to 1.3155 is likely to happen from that level, followed by retesting of level 1.3300. If after that the pair will successfully rise above 1.3350 – a “flag”, figure of trend’s continuation, will take effect and level 1.3570 will become the pair’s target.

2. The pair stays under 1.3080 and then goes below 1.2980 – in such case the pair will get to accumulation of supports between 1.2857–1.2776. In case the last mentioned support will be passed, the pair will head to 1.2525.




Daily graph

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair went above level 1.3550 – key resistance had been passed; owing to that, target of the pair’s growth is now set at resistance level 1.3910. Support is at 1.3550.




Daily graph
Level 1.3550 proved to be a key level. The pair’s rising above it led to development of a strong uptrend, having targets of growth set at intermediate resistance 1.3910, target level 1.4230 and then, possibly, at 1.4400. Support is currently at 1.3550.

USD/JPY

H4 graph
As we can see at H4 graph, the pair approached support level 96.40 closely – this is the level which coincides with the “head & shoulders” figure’s neckline. Now we’re at the stage of the figure’s right shoulder formation. Bounce off 96.40 is possible; in such case the pair will find a resistance at level 97.90, pushing off which the pair will head to the neckline (96.20) again, continuing the downtrend. But if the pair gets under level 96.05 (under the neckline), the figure will be executed and the pair’s dropping target will be set to level 93.50.




Daily graph
The “head & shoulders” trend-turning figure’s right shoulder formation is in progress. The pair is about to get under level 96.05 (under the figure’s neckline); in such case it will reach the target level 93.50. There are also two target levels below, hence, if the pair drops below 93.50, it will reach target 92.20, and successively the target will be set to level 90.25.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along a downtrend having the lowering target set to levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. A slight correction takes place now, caused by the bounce off level 1.3800 (the neckline of “head and shoulders”). Levels 1.3953 and 1.4000 (gap level) are the resistances; the pair is supposed to turn from those levels soon. To gain a continuing down-trending impulse, the pair needs to get down below levels 1.3800 and 1.3700 again, what will lead to dropping to target levels 1.3550 and 1.3450. However, this lowering may be quite wavy, since the pair is moving along the 4th correctional wave (this is clearly seen on daily graph).





GBP/USD

H4 graph
Level 1.6240 ("H" trend line) has unleashed its force again making the pair go for a correction. But current trend is still a downtrend with the lowering target set to level 1.5900 (due to the fact that the pair is being traded below the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend). The pair is supposed to find a resistance at level 1.6580 (crossing of “B” and “K” trend lines), but also it may start going down before getting to this level. Unlike the rest of main pairs, GBP has lesser down-trending impulse against dollar owing to the picture over EUR/GBP, where we can see a rapid dropping of that pair.
In order to reinforce the pair’s down-trending attitude, it needs to get under support 1.6240 (“H” trend line), and then under level 1.6100 (crossing of “Z” and “P” trend lines). After that the pair will get to 1.5900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend).





GOLD

H4 graph
Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.

I like your approach - only price, minimum indicators. I also incorporate a lot of channels in my trading. Also in my indicators, the ones I develop and use.
I have a questions:
In channels, do you trade only the pullbacks or the breakout themselves? Just interesting to hear from a profitable trader.

As rule I trade on breakout, but some times and on pullbacks, if trend line is very important and etc.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair is being traded along side trend that is turning to a downtrend due to the pair's lowering below level 1.3900. In addition, the trading goes within a "down-trending triangle" figure ("C-C+" red channel) that implies developing of a downtrend with lowering target set to support level 1.3550, which is the main lowering target by the moment. However, execution of "triangle" upon exit below level 1.3690 will empower developing of a more deep downtrend, which will have lowering target set to level of a strong support 1.3285, and also probably to 1.3160. But those levels should be considered later, basing on situation over the market. Up to this moment, the situation in dollar is generally saying about dropping to level 1.3550, and we should be expecting that to happen in nearest future.





GBP/USD

H4 graph
The pair reached resistance level 1.6580, what caused very massive sells. After that it went under level 1.6460 ("a+" trend line), clearing the way for dropping to support 1.6250 ("P" trend line) that the pair is currently moving to. Basically, situation is favorable for lowering below level 1.6250 after passing support 1.6190 (the minimum of 06/18/09). Breaking of support 1.6190 will also set the lowering target to level 1.6050 ("C" trend line).





USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair couldn't get any lower than support level 1.0780 and then went above level 1.0800 ("Y" trend line), what speaks about the pair's intention to test resistance level 1.0940 ("triangle" figure's higher bound). Next, the pair will rise above this level and get a growing target at level of intermediate resistance 1.1030 ("K" trend line; because the pair is being traded above the higher bound of "B-B+" daily downtrend). Level 1.0940 will become a support then. After getting over level 1.1030 the pair will get a growing target to key resistance levels 1.1145 - 1.1245. Currently support is at level 1.0800.





GOLD

H4 graph
Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair had bounced off level 1.4200 (“E” trend line) again, what lead to emerging of another massive selling wave (which was confident this time).

The pair went under level 1.4035 and broke the lower bound of “a-a+” 4-hours uptrend on its way down, setting the pair’s lowering target to support level 1.3850 (“neckline”) – right where we are now moving to.

A correction may then start from that support; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.4000, from which the pair will go back to 1.3850. In case the pair drops below level
1.3820, it will clear the road to the lowering target at support level 1.3650 (“D” trend line).

Trend status: side trend in transition to downtrend
Current resistances: 1.4055
Supports: 1.3960, 1.3850






GBP/USD

H4 graph
Last week the pair attempted to update the maximum of 06/03/09 (level 1.6661), but failed. Having bounced the pair went under level 1.6530, what lead to development of a downtrend.

Now the pair is sitting on support 1.6300 formed by the lower bound of “E-E+” side trend and the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly uptrend.

We can’t say about confident continuation of downtrend until the pair drops below level 1.6240, opening the straight road down to support level 1.5900 (the lower bound of “W-W+” side trend).

A correction may then start from that level; and if so, it is supposed to be finished at resistance level 1.6240, from which the pair will go back to 1.5900. In case the pair drops below level 1.5855, the lowering target will be set to level 1.5500 (the lower bound of “D-D+” weekly uptrend).

Trend status: downtrend
Current resistances: 1.6400, 1.6490, 1.6550 (crucial)
Supports: 1.6300, 1.6200





USD/CHF

H4 graph
The pair’s trading continues within a side trend; however the analysis of other main pairs speaks in favor of emerging an impulse to develop an uptrend.

The pair got over level 1.0845 (broke the higher bound of “a-a+” H4 downtrend), what clears the road up to resistance 1.1145 (the higher bound of “C-C+ weekly downtrend).

Trend status: side trend in transition to uptrend
Current supports: 1.0830
Resistances: 1.0880, 1.0940, 1.1145





GOLD

H4 graph
Having bounced off levels 940–945 (which “neckline” and “K” trend line pass through) gold formed a “diamond” trend-continuing figure. Dropping below level 925 clears the road down to level 916. In its turn, dropping below level 916 clears the road down to crucial levels 888 and 877.

EUR/USD

H4 graph
The pair keeps trading along a sideways trend (“O-O+”) between two key levels – 1.4390 (a very strong resistance) and 1.4215 (turning level). This trend is transforming into a “triangle” figure, which is being formed now and has its top at level 1.4425, where the 4th wave of this figure is supposed to emerge. Basically, we may consider the figure as such that will turn the sideways trend either upwards or downwards, so we should take the levels into consideration anyway.

There are two variants of events to proceed:
1. If the pair breaks above level 1.4425, the “triangle” figure may be treated as an uptrend-continuing figure. This way, the market sets the target of growth to level 1.4580. However, there is a very strong resistance on the way up – level 1.4500 (the higher boundary of “C-C+” sideways trend weekly). So, we may try to open buy positions above 1.4425, then it is necessary to close them right before approaching 1.4500 and buy additionally only upon break above ~1.4545.

2. The “triangle” figure is becoming the figure bearing a downtrend in case the pair breaks below level 1.4215 (gets below “B” and “O” trend lines); in such case the pair will get to essential support 1.4085 (“P” trend lines).
Personal prejudice:
I wouldn’t trade for buying while the pair is located above level 1.4545, since there are a whole lot of important resistances, which won’t let the market to pass them easily – the market is going to twitch. It is more secure to sell after drop below level 1.4215 with the target set to 1.4085.

H4 graph
The pair is still following the sideways trading pattern between key levels 1.4360 and 1.4175, and correction won’t be finished until one of those levels is passed.

Variants of events to proceed:
1. The pair retreats to support 1.4175 again, then drops below level 1.4135. In such case it will clear the road of lowering to level 1.3900 (the lower bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).
2. The pair rises above level 1.4360. In such case it will clear the road of growth to level 1.4500 (the higher bound of “C-C+” sideways trend daily).