There are 4 main lines of data: -
API Actual Crude
API Actual Gasoline
Remember that Oil is a commodity. More oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive deviation means a SELL on OIL and a negative deviation means a BUY on oil! So we must reverse the triggers!
Today’s forecasts are as follows :
DOE Crude +0816
DOE Gasoline -3467
API Actual Crude +12800
API Actual Gasoline -8500
Therefore I’ll use the forecast of
= + 6000 for Crude oil
= - 6000 for Gasoline
Trade on - US Oil, Crude, WTI
Crude and Gasoline Must deviate in the same direction, if Crude deviates by a minimum of 7000, then we can look to enter the market for some easy pips!
We know that the market watches the API oil report for clues as to the possible outcome of The Crude Oil Inventories report today. Yesterday’s API showed another conflict between Gasoline and Crude. Let's hope that's not what happens today, as we don't want to take any trade if there's a conflict.
Check out the move that API private report created last night! See charts here...
We can see last week’s report had a huge deviation but also a huge conflict! The move was BIG but short-lasting, with few opportunities to get in on the trade. That's a dangerous situation, that's best avoided. See charts here...