Martingale

martingale

The martingale is a relatively simple betting strategy. It consists of doubling the bet after every loss so the first winning hand gives a total win equal to all losses combined plus the amount of the original bet.
The conditions so that the martingale is profitable are

  • That the win probability is close to 50%
  • That a win would win back 100% of the original bet.

For example, in the coin game heads or tails, you win back your bet if you win, otherwise you lose it. Suppose your initial bet is $1 and you lose the first round. At your next turn, you bet $2 and you lose again. You then bet $4 and you win. You will have won back your loss of $1+$2=$3 and you will have won $4 on the last turn, giving a total winning of $1 (equivalent to the original bet).
This strategy can be applied to trading. For example, you open a position fixing a stop loss and goal of making $100. If you lose, you open a second position with a stop loss and a goal of $200, and so on, until you get a winning trade. In the end, you will have won $100.
From a statistical viewpoint, if you have great ability to double the bet, you will have a great probability of winning. But as you will see in the simulation tool, the more you tolerate a great number of successive losses, the more your capital will have to be for a relatively small gain.

The martingale simulator takes into account 3 factors:

  • The maximum number of successive losses you think you will reach in the worst case scenario.
  • The initial bet
  • Your total capital
In the simulator below we will help you evaluate these martingale factors. You give us two factors and we will calculate the third one. Then, you decide if the martingale is appropriate for your trading style.

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